Right now the Heels are riding a wave of confidence.  Finally many fans are getting the pleasure of watching the team that everyone expected to see at the beginning of the season.  The Heels are transforming into a well-balanced team that plays great defense and forces the ball quickly up-court in the transition offense. 

     For the second straight game the Heels dominated their opponents with an heir of dominance and flair that no one has seen this year.  This Tar Heel team is the team that the Associated Press expected to see, and no other teams around the country must take notice.  Carolina lost some very winnable games early in the season, but they are now on a four game winning streak and have won nine of their last ten contests.

     Opposing coaches around the ACC are definitely losing sleep over the thought of having to prepare for this Carolina team.  When you look at the roster from the very top to the very bottom, it should become painfully obvious that Roy Williams has miraculously constructed a ten player rotation that runs opposing teams ragged for forty minutes.  I choose to use the word miraculous simply because the Heels have lost over ten players to graduation transfers and early declarations to the NBA since the ’09 championship season.

     Roy Williams has mastered the art of puzzle building, and it shows with how well this team has gelled at the midpoint of the season.  The Heels played so well against Boston College last night in snowy Massachusetts that the fans in attendance had to wonder if the roof had collapsed, because Carolina brought the blizzard inside with their surprisingly effective three-point shooting.  Freshman Reggie Bullock provided the best example of how well the Heels were performing by scoring 18 points off the bench.  He scorched the nets for four threes in the first-half alone.

     Now the Heels have to guard against complacency after two virtuoso performances in their last two conference games.  Harrison Barnes cracked the 20 point barrier for the first and second time in his career in both contests respectively, but the Heels are such a balanced team that a scoring outburst can come from any player at any time.  The next two games for the Heels are a home game against Florida State and a trip to Durham for the game of all games against the Duke Blue Devils.  The team appears to be confident.  The fans are confident. And the upcoming teams on the schedule are probably having trouble sleeping.  Go Heels!!!   

Damein Fitzgerald

Florida State’s coach entered the year somewhat embattled and at least on the “warm seat” after last year’s season once again failed to live up to many fans’ expectations.

He finds himself a bit more comfortable after a solid start to the year, but life could still be a bit better for the Seminoles. Hamilton’s young men seem to be a bubble team year after year, and 2008-09 is looking no different.

Florida State (16-4, 3-2 ACC) owns an impressive record but has only notched a few wins over quality teams (California and Florida; Cincinnati is not as impressive).

FSU led Pittsburgh late in the second half, but eventually fell 56-48 and also owns an eight-point loss to No. 1 Duke in a game that only became close after a furious Seminole second-half rally. FSU just lost a crucial conference game a week ago at rival Miami (FL).

The ‘Noles did rebound nicely from that defeat in trashing Virginia, shooting a stellar 8 of 15 from behind the arc (53%).

Unfortunately, it’s not going to be as easy tonight when Hamilton and the Seminoles host a resurgent North Carolina (17-2, 4-2 ACC) team fresh off the consecutive obliterations of Virginia and No. 10 Clemson. The No. 5 Tar Heels look to be returning to the form they exhibited in early season blowouts of Notre Dame and Michigan State.

Wayne Ellington has found his shooting touch for the Heels in the last two games, which spells trouble for any opponent hoping to collapse on Tyler Hansbrough as the focal point of their defense.

Florida State lacks the explosive point guard that has troubled Carolina in their two losses (Wake Forest’s Jeff Teague and Boston College’s Tyrese Rice), though senior PG Toney Douglas isn’t exactly chopped liver.  Still, FSU only hands out about 11 assists per game and no one other than Douglas averages double digits in scoring.

The Seminoles really can’t afford to just launch three-pointers and hope that enough of them fall in order to defeat UNC.  Their half-court sets have been atrocious at times (with poor passing), and the Heels are known for eating that up, just as they did in defeating Clemson. 

The Seminoles turn the ball over about 17 times a game.  If they want to compete with North Carolina, they’ll need to virtually halve that number.

Still, the Tar Heels would be wise not to take Florida State for granted. There are no nights off in the ACC, as they painfully learned in their loss to Boston College. Here’s three keys to victory for each team.

To win, Florida State must:

1. Shoot (and hit) from behind the arc, but adapt if the Heels play pressure defense.

Florida State shouldn’t go away from their strength, which is clearly three-point shooting.  But if the Heels start smothering the perimeter, Solomon Alabi and Chris Singleton need to see the ball. No hesitation; get it to them fast.

The Heels can be vulnerable to this attack, but only if quick decisions are made, not an ability that Florida State has demonstrated much this year.

2. Refuse to rely on Toney Douglas to score 30+ points.

In fact, if Douglas scores more than in the low 20s, I can almost guarantee Florida State will lose. When Douglas goes off, the rest of the ‘Noles tend to stand around on offense and take snapshots, as their heads drift away like Mr. Mackey on acid.

Guess how many points Douglas had in the loss to Miami? Thirty. You betcha.

Florida State generally plays solid defense, but the offense can get quite stagnant.

3. Deny UNC the ability to set the pace of the game.

This is the tallest order for the ‘Noles because when a team shoots a lot of threes, it is often vulnerable to UNC’s fast-paced response.  This is doubly true in Florida State’s case as they have had trouble handling the ball.  If this game even gets into the 80s, Florida State stands virtually no chance of winning.

It means racing back on defense, sharp, crisp, passing, staying alert, and only taking the right kind of three-point shot with people in proper position (not necessarily the first open shot available).  Offensive boards, again the responsibility of Alabi and Singleton, can also greatly help blunt the Tar Heel fast break.

Guard Lawson with your feet, not your hands, or he will slice through you and lay it up before you can blink.  Reduce Hansbrough’s touches as much as possible.  If you have to let North Carlina get the ball inside, let it go to Thompson, who has been slumping some of late.  Stay in Ellington’s face.  Stay out of foul trouble.

Now for the Heels.  To win, UNC must:

1. Play inside-out, not outside-in.

Part of being successful for North Carolina is a good start because they do not often play well from behind (especially in the second half). They tend to shoot from behind the arc in an attempt to make up ground.

When they win, it’s because they feed Hansbrough and Thompson repeatedly inside, opening Green, Ellington and (lately) Lawson on the perimeter. It doesn’t work in reverse, as Boston College and Wake Forest both demonstrated to UNC.

This point can be made in practically every single UNC preview, but it is especially true when facing a quality defensive squad such as Florida State. They may not have the defensive talent of Duke, but the ‘Noles can match that intensity for extended periods of time.

2. Get better support from the bench.

The Heels need to realize that Zeller and Ginyard probably aren’t coming back, and get on with it. It looked like nearly everyone ratcheted up their defensive intensity against Clemson and that is what will be needed every single game, with defensive specialist Ginyard inching closer and closer to a medical red-shirt.

Ed Davis has been solid; his shot-blocking presence is a nice compliment to Hansbrough and makes him a good substitute for Danny Green. Davis still has some issues to work through on the offensive end (his mid-range jumper especially), but providing offensive rebounds is a key.

Davis averages as many rebounds as Hansbrough (in less minutes) and four times as many blocks.

Larry Drew II needs to quit hemorrhaging turnovers when he is substituting at the point for Lawson. Drew has a 2.6:1.5 turnover-to-assist ratio, which is not horrible, but it has been closer to 1:1 in recent games, which is. Lawson, on the other hand, owns about a 7:2 ratio, and that is what Drew needs to aim for.

Will Graves mostly just needs to make better decisions. His defense is improving, but he still has the tendency to launch ill-advised three-pointers, despite shooting a horrendous .286 from that range.  He turns the ball over far too often, usually a result of sloppy passing. 

Playing about 12 minutes a game, Graves needs to understand his role and not try to do too much.

3. Play Pressure Defense.

FSU is already subject to turning the ball over, so North Carolina should force the issue and force turnovers.  This is also one way to ensure Deon Thompson’s head stays in the game.  Lawson and Green especially excel in a pressure defense, and it helps compensate for some of Ellington’s defensive weakness.

Florida State doesn’t have the potent press-breaking weapons that Wake Forest and, to a lesser degree, Boston College possess, making the tactic especially effective against the ‘Noles.

Press, run, and run some more. This forces the pace and can help get FSU in foul trouble.  Serious foul trouble would likely be a death knell for the Seminoles, especially with the way that Hansbrough (.842), Lawson (.772), Green (.760), and Ellington (.830) convert their free throws.

On to the prediction…

I think Florida State does not match up well at all with North Carolina, who can truly eat up turnover-prone teams who rely on the three-point shot for pressure. Florida State plays better defense than most teams UNC has faced so far, but I can’t see the Heels being held to the 60s or even the 70s.

Florida State will drop to .500 in league play and North Carolina will continue their resurgence, getting a nice ACC road win.

No. 5 North Carolina Tar Heels 88, Florida State Seminoles 72

Bonus prediction: Toney Douglas scores 28 points in a losing effort.

It is time to look at the next batch of conferences in this series that honors the true forces in NCAA basketball, the fruitcakes who like to play Jekyll and Hyde, and the frauds that have been exposed (or are in the process of being exposed) as overrated. 

This edition examines the Big Ten, Big XII, CAA, and Conference USA. The analysis continues to move in alphabetical order to avoid any charges of bias.

For complete definitions and a thorough look at the ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, and Big South, click here. To quickly wrap up what has already been discussed, I’ve provided the following table, with a couple of sentences for the conferences not already examined in-depth.

America East: Vermont (FORCE), Binghamton (FRUITCAKE), Albany (FRAUD)

Oddly enough, Vermont has lost to both Albany and Binghamton, but remains the most talented team in the conference. Binghamton earned wins over Rutgers and Tulane, but also has losses to awful teams. Albany defeated both Vermont and Binghamton, but don’t be fooled. They followed the wins up with losses to Maine and Stony Brook.

ACC:  Duke (FORCE), Maryland (FRUITCAKE), Boston College (FRAUD)

Atlantic Sun:  E. Tennessee St. (FORCE), Jacksonville (FRUITCAKE), Mercer (FRAUD)

Mercer opened the season with wins over Alabama and Auburn but has been sketchy ever since.

Atlantic 10:  Xavier (FORCE), Massachusetts (FRUITCAKE), Dayton (FRAUD)

Big East:  Connecticut (FORCE), Notre Dame (FRUITCAKE), Villanova (FRAUD)

Big Sky:  Portland St. and Weber St. (both are 1/2 FORCE, 1/2 FRUITCAKE), Montana (FRAUD)

Portland St. scored one of the biggest upsets of the season (over Gonzaga), but will fight Weber St. (who have already beat the Vikings 80-66 on the road) for the conference title.

Big South:  No FORCE, including VMI; Liberty (FRUITCAKE), Radford (FRAUD)

Moving on to today’s analysis, first up is the (sigh) Big Ten. This should be fun.

Big Ten Conference

THE FORCE:  Michigan State Spartans (15-3, 5-1)

Michigan State remains at the top of a conference literally full of fruitcakes. You can call them the banana bread, if you want. 

The Spartans didn’t exactly cement their status with a loss to Northwestern, but don’t forget that they rolled off 10 straight victories before the upset, including impressive wins over Illinois, Kansas, Ohio St., Minnesota, Penn St., and Texas.

THE FRUITCAKE(S):  Penn State Nittany Lions (15-5, 4-3) and Northwestern Wildcats (10-6, 2-4)

Okay, I admit that I could have practically picked a name out of a hat. I simply couldn’t write this article with only one Big Ten fruitcake; let’s just say the papers from the hat stuck together. Of all the candidates, these two truly befuddle me. 

While teams like Minnesota, Illinois, and Purdue were certainly candidates, their losses have been mostly understandable. The Nittany Lions, on the other hand, have losses to Rhode Island, Wisconsin and Temple to go with their win over Purdue.

Northwestern looked to be joining Iowa and Indiana in the cellar of the Big Ten, until they pulled off a win over Minnesota and a road stunner over Michigan State.  Good luck placing bets on any team in this conference.  Save your money.

Either team could finish anywhere between third and ninth in this fruitcake conference.

THE FRAUD:  Michigan Wolverines (13-6, 3-4)

The Wolverines edge out Wisconsin and Ohio State in this category, partially because they have lost to both teams. Even worse for Michigan fans, their hopes rose for a surprise season after an early-season upset of then No. 4 UCLA coupled with a shocker over No. 1-in-waiting Duke. 

Right now, that feels like years ago, and the UCLA win has lost some of its luster as the Bruins slip down the rankings.

The Wolverines are young and it hasn’t helped that DeShawn Sims seems to have lost his shooting touch. The defensive lapses and inability to hold a lead against mediocre teams bodes poorly for the immediate future.

Losses to Maryland and Wisconsin, in addition to three straight conference losses, exposed significant weaknesses.

Facing six more games against currently ranked teams, including a tilt with No. 3 Connecticut, means that Michigan may struggle to finish as anything more than a quintessential bubble team at best.

Big XII Conference

THE FORCE:  Oklahoma Sooners (18-1, 4-0), featuring Blake Griffin

This may sound ridiculous, but Oklahoma has to be one of the more overrated 18-1 teams I have ever seen. The Sooners keep playing close contests against teams with far less talent, but they just keep winning those games. Not too many people are going to care about the margin of victory. 

However, depending on how things shake out, their rather weak non-conference slate may very well be what costs them a No. 1 seed in March.

Oklahoma struggled mightily with mediocre Nebraska and Kansas State teams and above-average Texas A&M, but looked strong in dismantling Texas and is handling Baylor easily so far today.

Blake Griffin is the true force here, more so than the Sooners as a team. He averages 22 points and 14 rebounds a game while shooting .635 from the field (including .500 from behind the arc), and he may be pulling away in the race for Player of the Year.

THE FRUITCAKE:  Kansas Jayhawks (14-4, 3-0)

The Big XII has their share of fruitcakes much like the Big Ten, but Kansas edges out Texas, Texas A&M, and Missouri. 

It should be noted that Kansas has played much more like a “force” of late, but their youth and inexperience makes it likely that there will be more stunning losses like those the Jayhawks have already suffered to Massachusetts and Arizona.

They beat fellow fruitcake Tennessee on Jan. 3 but were clearly outclassed at Michigan State in a 75-62 Jan. 10 loss.

Kansas has one of the easiest schedules in the Big XII, with just one matchup each against Baylor, Texas and Oklahoma. Expect a couple more surprising losses for the Jayhawks, but they should earn a decent seed in March.

Starting a freshman, two sophomores, and two juniors, they are prime candidates for a first or second-round tournament upset.

THE FRAUD:  Nebraska Cornhuskers (12-5, 2-2)

Nebraska’s highest-quality win is a 56-51 home victory over Missouri, which isn’t saying much. The Huskers also have embarrassing losses against UMBC, Iowa State and Oregon State. Texas A&M (15-4, 1-3) better get it together quickly, or they may be joining Nebraska in this category soon.

Really, they shouldn’t be so embarrassed. Despite the bandwagon getting crowded after wins over Missouri and Kansas State and a hard-fought loss to Oklahoma, the Cornhuskers are more likely to finish very near (or below) Iowa State in the bottom half of the Big XII. 

It is highly unlikely that Nebraska will reach beyond the NIT come March.

Colonial Athletic Association

THE FORCE:  Virginia Commonwealth Rams (15-5, 8-1)

In a month, this team has moved from Fruitcake to Force. I originally had George Mason (14-5, 7-2) slotted here but it appears that the Rams will hold on to knock the Patriots from their perch atop the CAA. If George Mason was to come back, they would deserve this position instead.

VCU is on their way to their seventh straight victory after an embarrassing two-point loss to Delaware.

As goes senior guard Eric Maynor, averaging 23 points and six assists, so go the Rams.  With some pretty bad losses (East Carolina, Delaware, at Rhode Island, at Vanderbilt), VCU will need to win the conference tournament to assure themselves a bid to the NCAA tournament in March.

George Mason, with losses to Hampton, Liberty and Northeastern, find themselves in the same position.

THE FRUITCAKE:  Northeastern Huskies (12-6, 7-1)

The Huskies play some of the best defense in the CAA and have scored upsets over George Mason and Providence. However, they could only manage 37 points in a loss to South Florida and just 48 in a blowout loss to Memphis.

Are they the team that beat Hofstra by 23 at home or lost to Hofstra on the road?

Good luck figuring that out.  Their next three games (at Old Dominion, at VCU, Delaware) will help sort out whether Northeastern is more Jekyll or Hyde. 

Keep your greenbacks in your wallet if you’re thinking about a wager.

THE FRAUD:  Old Dominion Monarchs (11-7, 4-4)

I really thought ODU would challenge for the CAA title yet again this year, but I was wrong, and it is only going to get worse for the Monarchs. They are the only team that plays the current top-four teams in the CAA twice each, meaning several more losses are on the horizon.

They will likely continue to beat CAA bottom-feeders like UNC-Wilmington and William & Mary, but don’t have the depth or talent to compete with VCU and George Mason.

Wins over Charlotte, Richmond, and Duquesne, along with a seven-game winning streak in December, have proven fraudulent with losses to Georgia State, Bucknell, Marshall, and James Madison now on the record.

The once-mighty Monarchs are not likely to earn even an NIT bid, but hopefully, this program won’t stay down long.

With only one senior on the team (none who start), coach Blaine Taylor will continue rebuilding this program that has yet to return to the perennial contender status it enjoyed from 2004-2008. 

The 2008-09 season could mark the first time ODU fails to make a postseason tournament (they made the CBI quarterfinals last season) since 2003-04.

Conference USA

THE FORCE:  Memphis Tigers (16-3, 5-0)

Perhaps the weakest of all “forces,” Memphis pulled out a victory over Tennessee today to maintain this designation in this generally weak conference. Still, Memphis has zero bad losses (Xavier, Syracuse, at Georgetown), a 10-game winning streak, and a stunning 47 consecutive conference win streak.

This year, that streak says more about Conference USA than it does Memphis. It’s hard to believe that there’s not an CUSA AD outside the city of Memphis who isn’t thinking, “Hey, Big East, think we could have a few of those 743 teams you have back?”

Memphis recently returned to the top-25, but nail-biters against Tulsa (a game they should have lost) and Central Florida shows how vulnerable the Tigers really are.

Their defense remains stout, but the offense is questionable, led by Tyreke Evans shooting a mediocre .453 from the field. In fact, no starter averages even close to .500 from the field and only two reserves (including Preston Laird, who averages less than half a shot per game) have hit that mark.

With games remaining against Tulsa, Tulane, UAB, UTEP, and second-place Houston (twice), Memphis is bound to have their conference streak ended soon.

THE FRUITCAKE:  Tulsa Golden Hurricane (12-7, 2-2)

This is one of the most confounding teams in the nations and for that, they edge out UTEP and UAB for the fruitcake designation.

I picked them to upset Memphis a couple of weeks ago and they did. That is, until the final seconds when Tulsa allowed a Tiger opponent to slice through them like a hot knife through butter and lay in the game-winning bucket.

The Golden Hurricane play the best defense in Conference USA, but two one-point losses to Memphis and Tulane keep them from having a perfect 4-0 record.

They thoroughly shut down Illinois in a four-point November loss, gutted Charlotte and impressively defeated Texas A&M, but also own an inexplicable 12-point loss to Ohio University.

Tulsa is already dangerous but unless they find more offensive production from someone other than Ben Uzoh, they won’t be able to really challenge Houston and Memphis for the CUSA title.

The next two games are tonight’s matchup at UTEP and a home game with UAB. In true fruitcake style, they will likely earn a 1-1 split.

THE FRAUD:  UTEP Miners (11-7, 2-2)

Although UTEP handed WCC power St. Mary’s their only loss of the year back in November and lost by just three to current No. 1 Wake Forest, the Miners have proven to be very mediocre since.

Disappointing losses to Houston and UAB indicate they are not yet ready to compete for a conference title. Worse yet, their resume includes losses to New Mexico State and Santa Clara.

The team that was once thought to be second-best in CUSA (after UAB lost several players to academic suspension) now appears headed for a mid-tier finish that at best will send them to the NIT.

Looking ahead to our next edition, it will be time to examine several mid-majors of interest. Included will be the Horizon League, the MAAC, the Missouri Valley, and the surprising Mountain West Conference. I look forward to hearing your opinions, as always!

The Atlantic Coast Conference is now 9-6 against the Big East this season, and no intraconference game was bigger than Duke’s relatively easy 76-67 victory over the Georgetown Hoyas on Saturday.

When Duke obliterated then-No. 9 Xavier in December, I argued that Duke was the No. 2 team in the country, behind then-No. 1 North Carolina.  After UNC’s struggles against Boston College and Wake Forest, I now believe that Duke can be named as the team to beat in the ACC.

What about undefeated Wake Forest?  What about undefeated Clemson?

It comes down to this: neither team has played the type of schedule Duke has and neither team has looked as dominant against quality opponents.  Neither Wake nor Clemson has shown the exemplary level of depth, toughness, and strength that Duke has thus far exhibited.

One of those teams will no longer be undefeated after this afternoon.  If Wake Forest defeats Clemson on the road, they certainly have an argument to make.  After all, they defeated North Carolina, but it should be noted that they have had very few tough opponents outside of the Tigers and Tar Heels.  It might be said that they also caught UNC at a weak moment.

Tar Heel fans might argue that they are still the team to beat in the ACC, but they will not be allowed to reclaim that mantle until (or if) both Duke and Wake stumble, or until they defeat those teams in February.

Right now, Duke is playing the best basketball in the country, with all due respect to Wake Forest and Pittsburgh.  They have played the toughest schedule of the three teams (by far), and their only loss (to Michigan) was a rematch on the road with a team they had already defeated.

It may not be a popular opinion, but I believe the top three teams in the country are:

1.  Duke

2.  Wake Forest

3.  North Carolina

Yes, I realize Pittsburgh is undefeated and has opened Big East play with victories.  Do they deserve to be ranked higher than UNC?  Yes, for the moment. 

But I don’t think Pitt would have fared any better against the ACC’s Big Three than Georgetown did today against Duke.  

Pittsburgh’s extraordinarily weak out-of-conference schedule leaves them as a bit of an enigma, but keep in mind that they struggled to beat Florida State on the road.  The Seminoles led for much of the second half, before the Panthers finally put them away.

Still, this argument is not based on one or two games, but a body of work. 

Duke rarely let Georgetown within 10 points in the second half and, make no mistake, the Hoyas are an excellent team.  The game was not really as close as the final score indicates.

North Carolina and Wake Forest have to be considered about equal, but right now remain a step behind the talented Blue Devils.

Duke defended the conference admirably today and, as a result, has garnered the “team to beat” moniker in the ACC…for the moment.

After looking at the major and many of the mid-major conferences, I have concluded that nearly every one of them has at least one “force,” one “fraud,” and one “fruitcake” (a team that would make Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde proud).

The definitions are as follows:

The Force: This is a team that much is or was expected of, and they are delivering on those expectations.  They are not just winning now; they will continue to win.  They must be a legitimate threat to win the regular-season conference title.  They need not have been a preseason favorite, but they need to have proven that they are “the real thing.”

The Fruitcake (pictured above): This is a team that you don’t want to place any wagers on.  One day, they might take down a top-5 team; the next, they may lose to a mediocre team from the Atlantic 10.  They are the Jekylls and Hydes…one can never be sure which team will show up on any given day.

The Fraud: This is a team that either has a gaudy record because they have been beating up on inferior opponents or has been thoroughly underwhelming not because they lack the talent, but because they were overrated to begin with.  They may or may not have been exposed yet, but are candidates for a one-and-done in March, if they are playing in the NCAA tournament at all.

In order to prevent any accusations of bias (especially the evil scourge of “East Coast Bias”), the conferences included will be listed in alphabetical order.  In this edition, I will take a look at the ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, and Big South.  Part II will examine the Big Ten, Big XII, CAA, and Conference USA.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The Force: Duke Blue Devils (16-1, 3-0)

Wake Forest (16-0, 3-0) is undefeated and No. 1 in the country, so why does Duke get the nod?  As detailed in a previous article, I believe the Devils have more staying power than the Deacons.  They have faced a more challenging schedule and have dominated (not just defeated) all the currently ranked opponents they have faced. 

The Blue Devils have faced six teams that have been ranked at some point in the season to Wake’s four and have looked extraordinary in those wins, while Wake had a tough time putting away Clemson and UNC (no shame in that) in the second half.  Make no mistake: Wake Forest is no fruitcake or fraud and Jan. 28th witnesses a clash of these two titans in Winston-Salem.

The Fruitcake: Maryland Terrapins (12-5, 1-2)

Maryland has a blowout of Michigan State on their resume (at a neutral court) as well as a home win over Michigan.  The Terps are five points from a 3-0 record in the ACC, suffering a two-point loss at Florida State and a three-point loss to Miami (FL), two quality ACC opponents. 

Nevertheless, the games are losses and devastating ones at that.

Maryland has just one bad loss, but it’s a doozy.  They fell 66-65 at home to Morgan State and will likely need a minimum 9-7 conference record, complete with a couple of quality wins over the top teams in the ACC, to be dancing in March.

The Fraud:  Boston College Eagles (13-6, 1-3)

I thought Virginia Tech (12-5, 2-1) would be pencilled into this slot given their preseason expectations, but Boston College has gone out of their way to prove themselves more worthy of the “fraudulent” label.

How do you squander the poll standing you gain after handing North Carolina a shocking loss in Chapel Hill?  Follow it up with a 12-point home loss to mid-tier Ivy League school Harvard and three additional losses, including to the aforementioned Hokies.

The Eagles will be looking at the NIT in March, assuming they manage to stay a couple of games above .500.  What a shame for phenom Tyrese Rice.

Atlantic 10 Conference

The Force: Xavier Musketeers (15-2, 4-0)

Look, someone had to be the force.  Xavier may not have proven themselves to be among the elite teams in the country, but they are far and away the best in a weak conference.  Their only losses are a blowout at Duke and a subsequent loss to Butler, one top-10 team and one top-20 team.

Xavier should run through the vast majority of their conference schedule with ease and have at least garnered wins over Missouri, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati and their best opponent, Memphis.

The Fruitcake: Massachusetts Minutemen (7-9, 2-1)

Oh, where to start.  Apparently, this team has a set of robots that occasionally come out to play well (or, conversely, it might be robots during the losses, judging from the manner in which they stand still playing defense).

They have recent wins over Temple (9-7, 1-1) and Dayton (16-2, 2-1), but they also own recent losses to St. Louis and Vanderbilt (by 30!).  Earlier this season, they edged Kansas on the road after losing six in a row to teams that included Toledo, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Jacksonville State.

If you’re thinking of placing money on a Minutemen game, keep your wallet in your pants (or purse).

The Fraud: Dayton Flyers (16-2, 2-1)

Dayton has not been fully exposed yet, but a 18-point loss to Creighton and a more recent 13-point loss to UMass have helped pull the curtain back.

Their lone marquee victory came a full 13 games ago when they upended Marquette, but that is about the only decent competition they have faced. 

The Flyers may very well ride a gaudy conference record and a pathetically weak non-conference slate (which includes a three-point win over Wofford and a one-point win over SEC weakling Auburn) to a decent seed in the NCAA tournament, but they are a prime candidate for a one-and-done when (or, rather, if) they get there.

Big East Conference

The Force: Connecticut Huskies (16-1, 5-1)

The Huskies get the nod over Pittsburgh due to their strength of schedule, their play in the most recent games, and the comparison of common opponents.  In league play, UConn hammered Rutgers (9-9, 0-5) 80-49 while Pittsburgh struggled to a six-point win against the weak Scarlet Knights.

Pittsburgh earned wins over substantially inferior opponents during their non-conference slate while the Huskies were garnering victories over the likes of Wisconsin, Miami (FL) and Gonzaga.

These two teams are very close but will not play until February 16th, the first of two showdowns that could very well determine a No. 1 seed in March.

The Fruitcake: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-5, 3-3)

There are certainly multiple candidates for this particular slot, but Notre Dame has recently proven themselves to be quite the fruitcake.

They have wins over Texas and Georgetown to go with recent back-to-back losses to Louisville and Syracuse, fellow fruitcake nominees.

It is the inexplicable loss to St. John’s that remains the most frustrating for Irish fans, however.  With consecutive upcoming games against Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh and a non-conference tilt at UCLA, the next six games will define the Irish season.  The best bet is that they’ll go 3-3 to cement their fruitcake status.

They have the talent to be a top-ten team but the results to fall out of the rankings entirely.  Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney need to return to their early-season form, and they need substantially more help from their teammates.

The Fraud:  Villanova Wildcats (14-3, 2-2)

Don’t be surprised if this currently ranked team gets left out in March or is one of the last teams in.  Villanova is 14-0 against ranked opponents and 0-3 against those in the top-25 (Louisville, Marquette, and Texas).  The toughest opponent in their non-conference schedule was Temple, and that is not saying much.

The next eight games feature Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Marquette and West Virginia, with the “easy” games being Cincinnati, Providence and South Florida, all of whom are capable of playing with Villanova.

The Wildcats have hands-down one of the easiest schedules in the Big East (they only play UConn, Pitt, Notre Dame, Louisville and Georgetown once each), and that might be the nail in their March coffin if they don’t reel off a few wins against quality opponents.

They may be ranked in the top-20 in some polls.  Don’t believe the hype.

The Big South

The Force:  None

That’s right.  No one gets nominated, including Virginia Military Academy (14-3, 6-1).  Yes, the opening season 111-103 win over Kentucky was impressive, but it was just that: an opening game.

Since then, VMI has just been an above-average Big South squad in a conference that lacks any real “force.”  Their 91-80 home defeat to Liberty eliminated some deluded fans’ belief that they would roll through the conference undefeated.

The Keydets usually score a ton of points, but their thin resume includes a 3-point win over Richmond, a four-point win at Gardner-Webb, and a one-point home victory over Coastal Carolina.  They rarely have looked dominant and that win over Kentucky feels like years ago.  It will to the Selection Committee as well.

The Big South remains a one-team conference at the moment: the team that wins the conference tourney.

The Fruitcake: Liberty Flames (13-6, 4-3)

A loss to Clemson is forgivable.  Losses at DePaul and St. Louis are understandable, if disappointing.  Losses to UNC-Asheville, Presbyterian and Winthrop are downright embarrassing.  And for those of you that think Winthrop is the team they were the last couple of years, keep in mind that they are now 4-12 overall and 3-4 in the Big South.

The wins over CAA leader George Mason, ACC foe Virginia and VMI make Liberty hard to figure out.  Guard Seth Curry (Stephen’s brother) has the potential to ignite this squad on any given night, and Liberty’s youth makes them a frustrating team to pull for.

If they can improve their consistency as they gain experience, they should provide a stiff challenge to VMI for the conference championship and Seth Curry will make them a dangerous first-round matchup in March if they do so.

The Fraud: Radford Highlanders (9-9, 6-1)

They may have earned a conference mark of 6-1 thus far, but their next three games are against VMI, Liberty, and Gardner-Webb, and the Highlanders are likely to be underdogs in all three.

It was nice while it lasted, but this team has neither the talent nor the depth to challenge the best of the Big South.  They will be fortunate to finish with a .500 mark in the conference.  They do not own a win over a Division I school with a winning record.

I hope you enjoyed this first installment.  I estimate that there will be three more in order to cover a decent range of conferences, and not just the ones that attract the most media attention.

As always, I welcome your comments and criticisms. 

Tyler Hansbrough, Ty Lawson, and Danny Green were the key elements in an 83-61 victory in which UNC returned to playing “Carolina basketball,” and a collective sigh of relief was released by the fans in Chapel Hill and Tar Heel coach Roy Williams, to be sure.

The formula is not difficult:

1.  Ty Lawson, take care of the ball and get back to the form that allowed you to lead the nation in turnover to assist ratio.  Get the ball to Hansbrough (see No. 2).  Please, please move your feet on defense.

2.  Tyler Hansbrough, flail that gigantic booty around as well as your sixteen arms and elbows.  Get in the lane, grab rebounds, act like the opponent stole your favorite childhood toy out of your garage (the basketball), and get it back.  Keep going up and grabbing the ball until they can do nothing more than hack you and then punish them by hitting more than 80% of your free throws.

3.  Danny Green, have fun.  Stroke the threes, but only when it’s appropriate.  Block shots like you were six inches taller than you actually are.  Make smart passes on the break.  Dance like no one is watching.

4.  Ed Davis (and others), keep doing your thing from the bench.  You have no idea how important you are going to be in March.  Your six-point, seven-rebound effort was solid.  But, hey, Bench, what the heck happened to you during that mass substitution in the first half?  You need to at least maintain a lead and let some guys get some rest.

5. (BONUS)  Unnamed ESPN color commentator (you know who you are), please stop doing that stupid thing with your voice at the end of sentences.  I realize you think it’s your signature “thing” and that I have no hope of such a cessation actually coming to fruition, but do you have any idea how annoying it is? 

Also, would you mind taking a stand and sticking to it?  When UNC is up by 20, the game is over and you’re talking about their next opponent, but when Virginia scores a couple of baskets and cuts it to 16, it’s a game again?  Huh? Do you have any idea how unpopular you are?

Now, it would be nice if Wayne Ellington would get that smooth shot to return and it will, eventually.  He was at least involved in the game more than he was against Boston College, driving to the basket several times and getting to the foul line seven times.  Still, he shot .400 from the field, which is not good enough.

Deon Thompson, after an incredible start to the season, has tended to disappear for large chunks of the game lately.  Four points and five rebounds will not get it done against the cream of the crop in the ACC.

But this night was all about Tyler Hansbrough and Ty Lawson.  Did anyone see Hansbrough’s shoulders by the way?  He has put on some serious added muscle from last year and it doesn’t look to be impeding his free throw percentage.

Hansbrough got to the line an astounding 17 times last night, hitting 15 of his attempts (.882).  He got there through grit, hustle and just wanting the ball more.

No one on the Heels fills up a stat sheet like Danny Green.  He tallied 13 points on 5 of 13 shooting (though he was just 1-4 from behind the arc), added six rebounds (three of them offensive), four assists, two steals and three blocks.  He also ran the break with excellence, helping Lawson’s performance as well.

Lawson, for his part, shot .700 from the field (7-10), including 3 for 3 from three-point land, 1.000 from the free throw line (2-2), and dished out nine assists while committing exactly zero turnovers.

Marcus Ginyard, we eagerly await your return.

Not all was perfect, and thankfully it doesn’t have to be against Virginia.

The Heels shot just .422 from the field as a team.  Fortunately, no one from Virginia could muster more than 12 points, as the Wahoos shot a miserable .305.  North Carolina actually played solid defense last night, and it paid off.

Virginia is better than they showed earlier in the season, but they ran into a team frustrated by an 0-2 start.  As ESPN felt the need to point out at least a dozen times during last night’s broadcast, UNC started 0-3 in ACC play during the 1997-98 season under Dean Smith and made it to the Final Four, so no one in Chapel Hill was too panicked.

The dream is very much alive, if North Carolina just follows the formula.  I will be the first to admit that it’s easier said than done.

UNC joined the likes of Oklahoma, Connecticut, and Duke in losing a stunner to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten.

North Carolina reverted to the poor form it displayed in losses last year at home to Maryland and Duke, as well as the devastating loss to Kansas in the Final Four.

They also showed that no one will breeze through the ACC, including a team that returned all five starters from a national championship contender in 2007-08.

Don’t take anything away from Boston College; they played better than the unanimous No. 1 team on this night, and they fully earned and deserve this victory.

Let’s look at what I listed as the keys to a North Carolina victory, see how well the Heels did in achieving them. Afterward, I’ll hand out some offensive and defensive grades.

From my Creature vs. Creature article, here were the keys to a North Carolina victory:

1.   Get off to a fast start.

Well, this certainly didn’t happen. Surprisingly, Wayne Ellington shot pretty well in the first half, but Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson didn’t get nearly enough touches. UNC was sloppy with the ball, turning the ball over 15 times while forcing just 11 turnovers.

The Tar Heels didn’t take their first lead until five minutes were left in the first half and they didn’t keep it long. They were down by six at halftime.

2.   Force turnovers and keep the Eagles running.

The Eagles were running just fine, but it was due to North Carolina turnovers, not their own. Sloppy passing was the primary culprit. Tyrese Rice, Reggie Jackson, and Rakim Sanders made them pay repeatedly.

Lawson looked incapable of defending Rice at times and missed many of his own runners on the offensive end. Boston College players were often left with uncontested threes and the Eagles’ offensive rebounding (at least in the first half) provided them with plenty of second-chance opportunities, something the Heels usually shut down.

Boston College took care of the ball better than any foe North Carolina has played thus far, turning the ball over just 11 times.

3.   Don’t get lazy on defense or rely on the three on offense.

The Tar Heels weren’t too bad from behind the arc until the last five minutes of the game. They would have been better off forcing the ball inside instead of launching one long three-pointer after another. Still, for the majority of the game, they didn’t fall into the trap of settling for long perimeter shots.

As far as their defense, I would credit impressive Eagles play more than I would call the UNC defense “lazy.” Rice outclassed Lawson time and time again. Deon Thompson wasn’t much of a factor on either end of the court and Hansbrough didn’t get enough touches or get to the line as much as he should have.

Finally, Danny Green picked up four fouls early, some of which did qualify as “lazy.” Without Marcus Ginyard at full strength, this really hurt the Heels ability to pressure Boston College as much as they would like.

Boston College shot .457 from the field, but it was UNC’s .384 that hurt far more.

Finally, let’s hand out some grades to North Carolina:

OFFENSE:

Perimeter Shooting:   B-

UNC shot well from the perimeter until the end of the game. In crunch time, neither Green, Ellington nor Lawson could get the threes to fall.

Interior Game:   D

Thompson was practically non-existent. Hansbrough missed nearly two-thirds of his shots, going 6 of 15 from the field. Lawson could not convert the fast break nor did he shoot well in the halfcourt sets, shooting a miserable 3 of 13 (.231). Worse yet, he and Ellington failed to get the ball to Hansbrough throughout the game.

Transition Game:   D+

A one to one turnover to assist ratio will not get it done. Lawson had those numbers (four and four) and so did the team as a whole (15 and 15). When they did get steals, the Tar Heels failed to convert many of them into buckets at the other end. They forced only 11 turnovers, and Boston College was rarely pressured into mental mistakes.

Free Throw Shooting:   D-

Usually one of the Tar Heel strengths, UNC shot just .556 from the charity stripe. The only reason they don’t get a failing grade is because Deon Thompson was the main culprit, going a pathetic 1 of 6. Though he’s one of the lowest percentage shooters anyway, that performance means it’s time for Thompson to spend some extra practice time shooting free throws.

Hansbrough was the best from the free throw line (.750 on 9 of 12 attempts), but even he was 12 percentage points below his average.

Offensive Rebounds:   B-

If UNC was given a first-half grade, it would have probably been in the range of a C or D. They stepped up the offensive rebounds in the second half and ended the game with 28, compared to Boston College’s 16. Of course, the reason they got so many offensive rebound was because they missed so many shots.

TOTAL OFFENSIVE GRADE:   C-

DEFENSE:

Perimeter Defense:   D-

The Eagles shot .375 from behind the arc, but it was the timing of the shots and how open they were that give UNC such a bad grade. When they did go out and guard the perimeter, they were slow in rotating, giving Boston College easy interior points.

Double-teaming was rarely effective and Tyrese Rice ran around Ty Lawson and the defense like a hot knife through butter.

The Tar Heels once again gave up far too high of a field goal percentage (.457) and could not get enough defensive stops at the end of the game to climb back into contention.

Interior Defense:   C-

UNC had five blocks; Boston College had eight. Those numbers should have been reversed, at worst. Boston College had 40 rebounds, 16 of them offensive. This is also far worse than UNC normally allows.

For their part, the Heels grabbed 50 boards. Hansbrough had nine total rebounds, but most of those were toward the end of the game. Thompson contributed just five rebounds for the Tar Heels.

Though Joe Trapani was generally shut down (minus a key three-pointer in the second half), Reggie Jackson repeatedly scored on the UNC defense. If you take away the last five minutes of the game, North Carolina drops a full letter grade.

Turnovers Forced:   D-

TOTAL DEFENSIVE GRADE:   D+

Hopefully, this loss is exactly what North Carolina needs. There will be no pressure of going undefeated. There will be, presumably, a real battle for the regular season championship. The players will hopefully find an easier time focusing on “one game at a time” instead of their goals for March.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in practice on Monday.

Bleacher Creatures appear to see it differently, clearly tiering the conferences into just two at the top and three more a significant step behind. Read ahead to find which conferences fall where in the first installment of the Conference Rankings, compiled from lists submitted by fans from coast to coast.

If you would like to read the original version of Conference Rankings (which were my own rankings only), you can read the long version here or the short version here. If you like a good background story, it will get you up to speed on most of what happened in November and December.

To vote in the next set of rankings, you can email your top-10 (or top-five or top-as far as you want to go) to nathanmedic2003@yahoo.com or post them on my profile.

Points are awarded by giving one point to a tenth-ranked conference up to ten points for the top-ranked conference. It couldn’t have been any closer for the top spot, which belongs to the…

1.  Big East [104 points, (6) first-place votes, Nathan's Ranking: 1]

(note: Louisville’s loss to UNLV occurred after the writing of this article)

I have stabbed my conference in the back, and I’ve got some “splainin” to do. Why has the Big East jumped the Big Ten and ACC?  Well, obviously, because Daniel Damico got his rankings in just in time.

No, I can’t blame it on him. Unlike earlier in the season, they have been winning the games they are supposed to, while some teams in the ACC (notably, Miami, FL and Georgia Tech) have been disappointing of late.

Lew Wright suggested the only way to argue against the Big East is to “shout louder than anyone else in the room.” The point is they received a ton of preseason hype and have generally failed to live up to expectations. Until the last couple of weeks, teams at the top of the Big East were winning by small margins over inferior teams and losing games they weren’t supposed to.

Lately, however, they have won key games against non-conference foes, including West Virginia‘s (10-2) upset over Ohio State, and Marquette‘s (11-2) buzzer-beater victory over N.C. State. Pittsburgh (12-0), though playing as a favorite, came back from a second-half deficit to beat a good Florida State team on the road.

There are a few bad apples at the bottom of this behemoth’s barrel, but that can be said for the Big Ten (Iowa and Indiana) and the ACC (see below) as well. The emergence of West Virginia as a ninth potential tourney team and the presence of seven teams in the top-20 is enough for me to (very) precariously place them at No. 1 for at least a week, anyway.

2.  Atlantic Coast [103 (5), Nathan's Ranking:  2]

They lost the top spot by the hair on Rick Majerus’ head. Garnering the rest (five) of the first-place votes, the ACC placed no lower than third, and that was only on one ballot.

With Oklahoma’s loss, the ACC will likely have three of the top five teams in the nation. Unanimous No. 1 North Carolina (12-0) continues to crush all comers, No. 5 Duke‘s (11-1) only loss is to a ranked team it had already beaten (Michigan), and No. 6 Wake Forest (12-0) is steamrolling its competition. No. 20 Clemson (13-0) also remains undefeated, though it is the only other team that the ACC places in the top-25.

Voters continue to cite the stigma of being “top-heavy” as a major reason for voting the ACC behind the Big East. Georgia Tech (8-4) didn’t help by blowing a game to CAA foe Virginia. Don’t write hate mail; I know Virginia’s still in the ACC…for now.

Three teams are now entrenched in the basement (Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech, and Virginia). N.C. State and Boston College are not far behind, looking mostly unimpressive in recent victories over weaker competition.

The ACC is nipping at the heels of the Big East. One major loss or victory can easily turn the tide, both for me and, it appears, the B/R voters.

3.  Big Ten [84 points, Nathan's Ranking: 3]

In the previous rankings (which were only my own), I placed the Big Ten at “1a,” just behind the ACC. The perception of the Big Ten by B/R voters is not nearly as positive, with one voter calling them, “the most overrated conference in the NCAA.”

I disagree wholeheartedly, but many of you do not, placing them on the same tier as the Big XII and the Pac-10, rather than on par with the Big East and the ACC.

The fact remains (as has been played out today) that the teams at the top of the Big Ten are simply not as good as those at the top of the Big East and ACC. It is still difficult for voters to place Minnesota (12-0), Illinois (13-1), or Ohio State (9-1) in the same league as Duke, UNC, Wake Forest, Georgetown, Syracuse, or Pittsburgh.

It appears the Big Ten will either have to garner even more non-conference victories or that some teams will have to emerge as “elite” before the voters are convinced.

In non-conference play, Illinois hammering Missouri was impressive; Ohio State getting punted by West Virginia was not.

The Big Ten ranked as high as second on two ballots, but also as low as sixth on one ballot and fifth on another.

4.  Big XII [77 points, Nathan's Ranking: 4]

Unlike the Big Ten, voters agree on what they think of the Big XII, as the conference ranked fourth on all but two ballots, one of which placed them at third and one of which slotted them fifth.

Keep in mind No. 5 Oklahoma‘s (11-1) stunning loss to SEC opponent Arkansas did not factor into the votes for this set of rankings; Missouri‘s (11-2) thrashing at the hands of Illinois did, however.

There is a significant schism between the top half of the Big XII, which includes No. 8 Texas (10-2), No. 19 Baylor (11-1), and Texas A&M (11-1), and the bottom half, which includes a disappointing Kansas (9-3) team.

Although all of the Big XII’s teams are at least two games above .500, many in the bottom half of the conference have already taken bad losses, most recently Colorado‘s (7-5) back-to-back losses to Vermont (really) and Buffalo (no, really).

5.  Pac-10 [68 points, Nathan's Ranking: 5]

There are a wide variety of opinions on the Pac-10, with some believing Stanford (10-0), USC (9-3), and California (11-2) will join UCLA (10-2) and Arizona State (11-1) in the national rankings before all is said and done. Like the SEC, the Pac-10 has had a generally weak out-of-conference schedule, which has inflated the records of several teams, and several have already suffered bad losses.

Several voters noted the talent level in this conference is higher than the teams’ results thus far indicate. Lew points out that while recruiting scorers is about “as tough as finding a price marked down at Wal-Mart,” he also believes that the defensive-minded coaches and toughness of the Pac-10 players will have them winning “when it counts, in March.”

Not surprisingly, West Coast voters tended to rank the Pac-10 higher, as they placed as high as third on two ballots, and as low as seventh on one other.

6.  Southeastern [50 points, Nathan's Ranking: 6]

It should be pointed out almost all votes were in (including mine) before Arkansas‘ (10-1) monumental upset of Oklahoma. The Razorbacks may have single-handedly saved the SEC West, as LSU (10-1) is nowhere near as good as their record, most recently escaping with a 81-79 home win against Louisiana-Lafayette.

Tennessee (8-3), like many of the SEC teams, is inconsistent but extraordinarily athletic, and Florida (11-2), like LSU, has not beaten a single ranked (or even decent) team. Right now, the SEC has just three tournament-worthy teams (Tennessee, Kentucky (11-3), and Arkansas).

The entire SEC (Schedule Easy Cupcakes) is at least three games above .500, which means absolutely nothing, given their pathetically weak out-of-conference schedules.

The SEC ranked as low as ninth on one ballot and no higher than fifth.

7.  Atlantic 10 [38 points, Nathan's Ranking: 7]

This conference may be fading. After being embarrassed by Duke on a national stage, Xavier (9-2) fell to Butler at home. Dayton (12-1) has a gaudy record but only one quality win (over Marquette) and an 18-point loss to Creighton. The upsets and close losses to highly-ranked teams seem to have been an anomaly, rather than a trend.

Only half of the A-10 is better than a game above .500 and it looks unlikely that more than two teams will be dancing come March.

Fourteen teams in the A-10? They may want a recount, considering the dead weight at the bottom that’s dragging down the conference’s RPI.

On ballots that named at least eight conferences, the A-10′s ranking fell between fifth and ninth.

8.  Mountain West [30 points, Nathan's Ranking: 8]

The MWC doesn’t have any ranked teams (yet), but it still has a lot of dangerous teams that either have nabbed some surprising wins or close losses to ranked teams. BYU (12-1) is a one-point loss to Arizona State from being undefeated, and the entire conference is above .500, with the exception of Colorado State (5-9).

The Cougars and UNLV (11-2) are clearly the cream of the crop, but nearly every other MWC team has been impressive against quality opponents at various times.

Of ballots that ranked at least seven teams, the MWC was unranked on only one, showing as high as sixth on multiple ballots.

9.  West Coast [16 points, Nathan's Ranking: 9]

The WCC is lucky to still be in the rankings after Gonzaga‘s (8-3) loss to Portland State. Voters likely remembered the near-miss to UConn and the continued upswing of St. Mary’s (12-1), though the bottom of this conference is nothing less than putrid.

The WCC ranked no higher than eighth on any ballot, and went unranked only on ballots that ranked nine conferences or less.

10.  Conference USA [8 points, Nathan's Ranking: NR]

Almost all rankings (including my own) were submitted prior to Houston‘s (8-2)drubbing of Massachusetts, Tulsa‘s (8-5) near-miss against BYU, and UAB‘s (8-5) four-point loss to No. 25 Butler. 

These teams, as well as UTEP (7-5), Tulane (6-6), and East Carolina (8-4), hold the key as to whether Memphis (8-3) USA, er, Conference USA, has any chance of moving up the board.

Conference USA ranked no higher than ninth and went unranked on several ballots.

Others Receiving Votes: Missouri Valley (4 points), Summit (3), Horizon (1)

Fell Out: N/A, first week

Participating voters: Daniel Damico, Lew Wright, Trey Bradley, Nathan B, Jameson Fleming, Joe Guarr, Travis Miller, Give em Hell Devils, Samuel Silverman, HD Handshoe, Benjamin Williams

Unanimous No. 1 North Carolina (13-0) opens play at home against Boston College (12-2) on Jan. 4, and the Tar Heels would be wise not to underestimate this potentially dangerous team.

The Eagles have slipped up just twice this season, with consecutive losses late in November.  The loss to St. Louis was embarrassing for BC, but they have poured it on since then, losing a hard-fought 71-64 contest to then-No. 10 Purdue before reeling off nine in a row, including close wins over Iowa, Massachusetts, UAB, and Providence.

Meanwhile, since the Dec. 3 beatdown of Michigan State, the Tar Heels have played an array of cupcakes ranging from Oral Roberts to, most recently, Nevada. 

UNC was less than impressive at the outset against the Wolfpack, but pulled away for a 84-61 victory.  They held Nevada to .349 from the field and just .100 from behind the arc.

They can expect stiffer competition from the Eagles and their floor leader, senior G Tyrese Rice.  Rice hasn’t been in the same All-Conference form as he was last season, but he is bound to go off eventually, as he did several times in 2007-08, when he averaged 21.6 points a game.

Not surprisingly, Tyler Hansbrough (23.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Ty Lawson (16.6 ppg, 6.6 apg, 2.5 rpg) have led the Tar Heels for most of the year, with Lawson being impressive enough to vault himself at least into the Player of the Year conversation, if not outright contention.

Defensive specialist Marcus Ginyard, though not at full strength, has returned to the lineup and Danny Green has been on fire from the perimeter, shooting .568 from the field and an astounding .481 from three-point range.

Hansbrough has been dangerous from the free throw line as well, getting to the stripe an average of 10 times a game, converting over 87% of his attempts.  That makes Hansbrough the best of the starters from the charity stripe, so hacking him won’t work for those defending him.

Getting the ball into Hansbrough’s hands remains one of the keys for North Carolina, and it’s a sure bet that Boston College will do everything in their power to deny him the ball.

The bench has also come up big for UNC and has helped them wear down opponents in the second half.  Ed Davis, Larry Drew II, and Will Graves have all been impressive off the bench, and Bobby Frasor has been adequate in spelling Lawson.

Their depth took a hit with the loss of Tyler Zeller for the season (injured in a win over Kentucky), but the substitutes have so far made up for his absence.

The Tar Heel team has played far from perfect, however.  They are still guilty of defensive lapses, though they have been significantly better defensively than the 2007-08 team.

They can’t afford to stand around and let Rice and Joe Trapani rain down threes and keep Boston College in the game.

Wayne Ellington is off to a cool start, shooting .439 from the field and .356 from behind the arc, both well below team averages.

The fans are excited that ACC play is finally here in a season in which nothing short of a national championship will be satisfactory, a tough position for any team to be in night after night.  I expect UNC will eventually lose a conference matchup, just not this one.

Keys to a Tar Heel Victory:

1.  Get off to a fast start.

Boston College is not Rutgers or Nevada.  In ACC play, UNC can’t afford to get off to a slow start and expect to come back every time just because of the name on the front of their jerseys.  The Heels did a good job in jumping on Michigan State and Notre Dame early; they need to do the same to the Eagles.

2.  Force turnovers and keep the Eagles running.

That’s pretty much a key to every UNC game.  If Boston College doesn’t take care of the ball, they will get blown out.

3. Don’t get lazy on defense or rely on the three on offense.

When playing without their heads completely in the game, North Carolina tends to engage in both of these bad habits.  They win when they force the ball inside. 

Teams compensate by collapsing on Hansbrough and Thompson, opening up Green and Ellington on the outside.  When the Heels try to do that in reverse order, it almost always backfires, and they find themselves struggling for consistency.

When they get lackadaisical on defense, they get burned by perimeter shots and they don’t get to play at the pace they prefer.  Do it against Boston College, and Tyrese Rice just might post a double-nickel on you.

I predict Roy Williams will have his dadgum Tar Heels dang ready for some durn ACC play, so the gosh-blessed prediction is:

North Carolina 92, Boston College 76

Team Leaders

Hansbrough: 28 points, 10 rebounds, 10-of-11 from the free throw line

Rice: 24 points, .400 from the field

Senior All-American and Player of the Year candidate Tyler Hansbrough led the way with 26 points on 10 of 15 shooting (.667) and 10 rebounds, his second double-double of the season.  He was also perfect from the charity stripe, hitting all six of his free throw attempts. 

Hansbrough’s field goal percentage and free throw percentage, the latter of which is exceptionally high for a big man, are part of what make the Tar Heel PF/C so incredibly dangerous.  His heart, of course, is a major factor as well, and there is no stat line for that.

Ty Lawson’s speed was on display yet again, as he contributed 19 points on 8 of 12 shooting (.667), 6 assists, 3 rebounds, and 2 steals, while turning the ball over just once. 

Lawson’s assist to turnover ratio is among the highest in the nation, and his name continues to be mentioned in Player of the Year conversations as well.  If he keeps playing as he has in the first 12 games, the conversation will continue.

Shooting guard Wayne Ellington’s disappointing start continued on Sunday as he hit just 2 of 7 (.286) from the field, though he did go 5 of 6 from the free throw line.  He has been particularly cold from behind the arc, and he missed both 3-point shots he attempted against Rutgers.

The fact that UNC is routinely blowing out teams by 15 to 20 points while Ellington remains cold only furthers the argument that this team will be virtually unbeatable while they remain healthy.  Deon Thompson, Danny Green, Ed Davis, Larry Drew II, and Will Graves have all stepped up in the absence of defensive specialist Marcus Ginyard (who returned to the court for the first time, playing 11 minutes on Sunday) and freshman center Tyler Zeller, who is likely out for the season with a broken wrist.

Ginyard had three points and two steals in the brief time that he played.  He looked smooth, making a superbly athletic move to score his one field goal of the game.

Rutgers shot nearly 50% from the field and was led by freshman Mike Rosario, who dumped in 26 points on 9 of 17 shooting.  Rosario added three assists and two rebounds, and shot an impressive 4 of 8 (.500) from behind the arc.

If the Tar Heels had any weaknesses on display, it was the field goal percentage allowed and their own paltry .286 3-point effort.

For North Carolina, conference play begins Jan. 4th at home against Boston College.  The Scarlet Knights are not as fortunate, facing successive games against No. 3 Pittsburgh and No. 2 Connecticut.