After looking at the major and many of the mid-major conferences, I have concluded that nearly every one of them has at least one “force,” one “fraud,” and one “fruitcake” (a team that would make Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde proud).

The definitions are as follows:

The Force: This is a team that much is or was expected of, and they are delivering on those expectations.  They are not just winning now; they will continue to win.  They must be a legitimate threat to win the regular-season conference title.  They need not have been a preseason favorite, but they need to have proven that they are “the real thing.”

The Fruitcake (pictured above): This is a team that you don’t want to place any wagers on.  One day, they might take down a top-5 team; the next, they may lose to a mediocre team from the Atlantic 10.  They are the Jekylls and Hydes…one can never be sure which team will show up on any given day.

The Fraud: This is a team that either has a gaudy record because they have been beating up on inferior opponents or has been thoroughly underwhelming not because they lack the talent, but because they were overrated to begin with.  They may or may not have been exposed yet, but are candidates for a one-and-done in March, if they are playing in the NCAA tournament at all.

In order to prevent any accusations of bias (especially the evil scourge of “East Coast Bias”), the conferences included will be listed in alphabetical order.  In this edition, I will take a look at the ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, and Big South.  Part II will examine the Big Ten, Big XII, CAA, and Conference USA.

Atlantic Coast Conference

The Force: Duke Blue Devils (16-1, 3-0)

Wake Forest (16-0, 3-0) is undefeated and No. 1 in the country, so why does Duke get the nod?  As detailed in a previous article, I believe the Devils have more staying power than the Deacons.  They have faced a more challenging schedule and have dominated (not just defeated) all the currently ranked opponents they have faced. 

The Blue Devils have faced six teams that have been ranked at some point in the season to Wake’s four and have looked extraordinary in those wins, while Wake had a tough time putting away Clemson and UNC (no shame in that) in the second half.  Make no mistake: Wake Forest is no fruitcake or fraud and Jan. 28th witnesses a clash of these two titans in Winston-Salem.

The Fruitcake: Maryland Terrapins (12-5, 1-2)

Maryland has a blowout of Michigan State on their resume (at a neutral court) as well as a home win over Michigan.  The Terps are five points from a 3-0 record in the ACC, suffering a two-point loss at Florida State and a three-point loss to Miami (FL), two quality ACC opponents. 

Nevertheless, the games are losses and devastating ones at that.

Maryland has just one bad loss, but it’s a doozy.  They fell 66-65 at home to Morgan State and will likely need a minimum 9-7 conference record, complete with a couple of quality wins over the top teams in the ACC, to be dancing in March.

The Fraud:  Boston College Eagles (13-6, 1-3)

I thought Virginia Tech (12-5, 2-1) would be pencilled into this slot given their preseason expectations, but Boston College has gone out of their way to prove themselves more worthy of the “fraudulent” label.

How do you squander the poll standing you gain after handing North Carolina a shocking loss in Chapel Hill?  Follow it up with a 12-point home loss to mid-tier Ivy League school Harvard and three additional losses, including to the aforementioned Hokies.

The Eagles will be looking at the NIT in March, assuming they manage to stay a couple of games above .500.  What a shame for phenom Tyrese Rice.

Atlantic 10 Conference

The Force: Xavier Musketeers (15-2, 4-0)

Look, someone had to be the force.  Xavier may not have proven themselves to be among the elite teams in the country, but they are far and away the best in a weak conference.  Their only losses are a blowout at Duke and a subsequent loss to Butler, one top-10 team and one top-20 team.

Xavier should run through the vast majority of their conference schedule with ease and have at least garnered wins over Missouri, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Cincinnati and their best opponent, Memphis.

The Fruitcake: Massachusetts Minutemen (7-9, 2-1)

Oh, where to start.  Apparently, this team has a set of robots that occasionally come out to play well (or, conversely, it might be robots during the losses, judging from the manner in which they stand still playing defense).

They have recent wins over Temple (9-7, 1-1) and Dayton (16-2, 2-1), but they also own recent losses to St. Louis and Vanderbilt (by 30!).  Earlier this season, they edged Kansas on the road after losing six in a row to teams that included Toledo, Wisconsin-Green Bay and Jacksonville State.

If you’re thinking of placing money on a Minutemen game, keep your wallet in your pants (or purse).

The Fraud: Dayton Flyers (16-2, 2-1)

Dayton has not been fully exposed yet, but a 18-point loss to Creighton and a more recent 13-point loss to UMass have helped pull the curtain back.

Their lone marquee victory came a full 13 games ago when they upended Marquette, but that is about the only decent competition they have faced. 

The Flyers may very well ride a gaudy conference record and a pathetically weak non-conference slate (which includes a three-point win over Wofford and a one-point win over SEC weakling Auburn) to a decent seed in the NCAA tournament, but they are a prime candidate for a one-and-done when (or, rather, if) they get there.

Big East Conference

The Force: Connecticut Huskies (16-1, 5-1)

The Huskies get the nod over Pittsburgh due to their strength of schedule, their play in the most recent games, and the comparison of common opponents.  In league play, UConn hammered Rutgers (9-9, 0-5) 80-49 while Pittsburgh struggled to a six-point win against the weak Scarlet Knights.

Pittsburgh earned wins over substantially inferior opponents during their non-conference slate while the Huskies were garnering victories over the likes of Wisconsin, Miami (FL) and Gonzaga.

These two teams are very close but will not play until February 16th, the first of two showdowns that could very well determine a No. 1 seed in March.

The Fruitcake: Notre Dame Fighting Irish (12-5, 3-3)

There are certainly multiple candidates for this particular slot, but Notre Dame has recently proven themselves to be quite the fruitcake.

They have wins over Texas and Georgetown to go with recent back-to-back losses to Louisville and Syracuse, fellow fruitcake nominees.

It is the inexplicable loss to St. John’s that remains the most frustrating for Irish fans, however.  With consecutive upcoming games against Connecticut, Marquette, Pittsburgh and a non-conference tilt at UCLA, the next six games will define the Irish season.  The best bet is that they’ll go 3-3 to cement their fruitcake status.

They have the talent to be a top-ten team but the results to fall out of the rankings entirely.  Luke Harangody and Kyle McAlarney need to return to their early-season form, and they need substantially more help from their teammates.

The Fraud:  Villanova Wildcats (14-3, 2-2)

Don’t be surprised if this currently ranked team gets left out in March or is one of the last teams in.  Villanova is 14-0 against ranked opponents and 0-3 against those in the top-25 (Louisville, Marquette, and Texas).  The toughest opponent in their non-conference schedule was Temple, and that is not saying much.

The next eight games feature Connecticut, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Marquette and West Virginia, with the “easy” games being Cincinnati, Providence and South Florida, all of whom are capable of playing with Villanova.

The Wildcats have hands-down one of the easiest schedules in the Big East (they only play UConn, Pitt, Notre Dame, Louisville and Georgetown once each), and that might be the nail in their March coffin if they don’t reel off a few wins against quality opponents.

They may be ranked in the top-20 in some polls.  Don’t believe the hype.

The Big South

The Force:  None

That’s right.  No one gets nominated, including Virginia Military Academy (14-3, 6-1).  Yes, the opening season 111-103 win over Kentucky was impressive, but it was just that: an opening game.

Since then, VMI has just been an above-average Big South squad in a conference that lacks any real “force.”  Their 91-80 home defeat to Liberty eliminated some deluded fans’ belief that they would roll through the conference undefeated.

The Keydets usually score a ton of points, but their thin resume includes a 3-point win over Richmond, a four-point win at Gardner-Webb, and a one-point home victory over Coastal Carolina.  They rarely have looked dominant and that win over Kentucky feels like years ago.  It will to the Selection Committee as well.

The Big South remains a one-team conference at the moment: the team that wins the conference tourney.

The Fruitcake: Liberty Flames (13-6, 4-3)

A loss to Clemson is forgivable.  Losses at DePaul and St. Louis are understandable, if disappointing.  Losses to UNC-Asheville, Presbyterian and Winthrop are downright embarrassing.  And for those of you that think Winthrop is the team they were the last couple of years, keep in mind that they are now 4-12 overall and 3-4 in the Big South.

The wins over CAA leader George Mason, ACC foe Virginia and VMI make Liberty hard to figure out.  Guard Seth Curry (Stephen’s brother) has the potential to ignite this squad on any given night, and Liberty’s youth makes them a frustrating team to pull for.

If they can improve their consistency as they gain experience, they should provide a stiff challenge to VMI for the conference championship and Seth Curry will make them a dangerous first-round matchup in March if they do so.

The Fraud: Radford Highlanders (9-9, 6-1)

They may have earned a conference mark of 6-1 thus far, but their next three games are against VMI, Liberty, and Gardner-Webb, and the Highlanders are likely to be underdogs in all three.

It was nice while it lasted, but this team has neither the talent nor the depth to challenge the best of the Big South.  They will be fortunate to finish with a .500 mark in the conference.  They do not own a win over a Division I school with a winning record.

I hope you enjoyed this first installment.  I estimate that there will be three more in order to cover a decent range of conferences, and not just the ones that attract the most media attention.

As always, I welcome your comments and criticisms. 

UNC joined the likes of Oklahoma, Connecticut, and Duke in losing a stunner to fall from the ranks of the unbeaten.

North Carolina reverted to the poor form it displayed in losses last year at home to Maryland and Duke, as well as the devastating loss to Kansas in the Final Four.

They also showed that no one will breeze through the ACC, including a team that returned all five starters from a national championship contender in 2007-08.

Don’t take anything away from Boston College; they played better than the unanimous No. 1 team on this night, and they fully earned and deserve this victory.

Let’s look at what I listed as the keys to a North Carolina victory, see how well the Heels did in achieving them. Afterward, I’ll hand out some offensive and defensive grades.

From my Creature vs. Creature article, here were the keys to a North Carolina victory:

1.   Get off to a fast start.

Well, this certainly didn’t happen. Surprisingly, Wayne Ellington shot pretty well in the first half, but Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson didn’t get nearly enough touches. UNC was sloppy with the ball, turning the ball over 15 times while forcing just 11 turnovers.

The Tar Heels didn’t take their first lead until five minutes were left in the first half and they didn’t keep it long. They were down by six at halftime.

2.   Force turnovers and keep the Eagles running.

The Eagles were running just fine, but it was due to North Carolina turnovers, not their own. Sloppy passing was the primary culprit. Tyrese Rice, Reggie Jackson, and Rakim Sanders made them pay repeatedly.

Lawson looked incapable of defending Rice at times and missed many of his own runners on the offensive end. Boston College players were often left with uncontested threes and the Eagles’ offensive rebounding (at least in the first half) provided them with plenty of second-chance opportunities, something the Heels usually shut down.

Boston College took care of the ball better than any foe North Carolina has played thus far, turning the ball over just 11 times.

3.   Don’t get lazy on defense or rely on the three on offense.

The Tar Heels weren’t too bad from behind the arc until the last five minutes of the game. They would have been better off forcing the ball inside instead of launching one long three-pointer after another. Still, for the majority of the game, they didn’t fall into the trap of settling for long perimeter shots.

As far as their defense, I would credit impressive Eagles play more than I would call the UNC defense “lazy.” Rice outclassed Lawson time and time again. Deon Thompson wasn’t much of a factor on either end of the court and Hansbrough didn’t get enough touches or get to the line as much as he should have.

Finally, Danny Green picked up four fouls early, some of which did qualify as “lazy.” Without Marcus Ginyard at full strength, this really hurt the Heels ability to pressure Boston College as much as they would like.

Boston College shot .457 from the field, but it was UNC’s .384 that hurt far more.

Finally, let’s hand out some grades to North Carolina:

OFFENSE:

Perimeter Shooting:   B-

UNC shot well from the perimeter until the end of the game. In crunch time, neither Green, Ellington nor Lawson could get the threes to fall.

Interior Game:   D

Thompson was practically non-existent. Hansbrough missed nearly two-thirds of his shots, going 6 of 15 from the field. Lawson could not convert the fast break nor did he shoot well in the halfcourt sets, shooting a miserable 3 of 13 (.231). Worse yet, he and Ellington failed to get the ball to Hansbrough throughout the game.

Transition Game:   D+

A one to one turnover to assist ratio will not get it done. Lawson had those numbers (four and four) and so did the team as a whole (15 and 15). When they did get steals, the Tar Heels failed to convert many of them into buckets at the other end. They forced only 11 turnovers, and Boston College was rarely pressured into mental mistakes.

Free Throw Shooting:   D-

Usually one of the Tar Heel strengths, UNC shot just .556 from the charity stripe. The only reason they don’t get a failing grade is because Deon Thompson was the main culprit, going a pathetic 1 of 6. Though he’s one of the lowest percentage shooters anyway, that performance means it’s time for Thompson to spend some extra practice time shooting free throws.

Hansbrough was the best from the free throw line (.750 on 9 of 12 attempts), but even he was 12 percentage points below his average.

Offensive Rebounds:   B-

If UNC was given a first-half grade, it would have probably been in the range of a C or D. They stepped up the offensive rebounds in the second half and ended the game with 28, compared to Boston College’s 16. Of course, the reason they got so many offensive rebound was because they missed so many shots.

TOTAL OFFENSIVE GRADE:   C-

DEFENSE:

Perimeter Defense:   D-

The Eagles shot .375 from behind the arc, but it was the timing of the shots and how open they were that give UNC such a bad grade. When they did go out and guard the perimeter, they were slow in rotating, giving Boston College easy interior points.

Double-teaming was rarely effective and Tyrese Rice ran around Ty Lawson and the defense like a hot knife through butter.

The Tar Heels once again gave up far too high of a field goal percentage (.457) and could not get enough defensive stops at the end of the game to climb back into contention.

Interior Defense:   C-

UNC had five blocks; Boston College had eight. Those numbers should have been reversed, at worst. Boston College had 40 rebounds, 16 of them offensive. This is also far worse than UNC normally allows.

For their part, the Heels grabbed 50 boards. Hansbrough had nine total rebounds, but most of those were toward the end of the game. Thompson contributed just five rebounds for the Tar Heels.

Though Joe Trapani was generally shut down (minus a key three-pointer in the second half), Reggie Jackson repeatedly scored on the UNC defense. If you take away the last five minutes of the game, North Carolina drops a full letter grade.

Turnovers Forced:   D-

TOTAL DEFENSIVE GRADE:   D+

Hopefully, this loss is exactly what North Carolina needs. There will be no pressure of going undefeated. There will be, presumably, a real battle for the regular season championship. The players will hopefully find an easier time focusing on “one game at a time” instead of their goals for March.

I would love to be a fly on the wall in practice on Monday.

Unanimous No. 1 North Carolina (13-0) opens play at home against Boston College (12-2) on Jan. 4, and the Tar Heels would be wise not to underestimate this potentially dangerous team.

The Eagles have slipped up just twice this season, with consecutive losses late in November.  The loss to St. Louis was embarrassing for BC, but they have poured it on since then, losing a hard-fought 71-64 contest to then-No. 10 Purdue before reeling off nine in a row, including close wins over Iowa, Massachusetts, UAB, and Providence.

Meanwhile, since the Dec. 3 beatdown of Michigan State, the Tar Heels have played an array of cupcakes ranging from Oral Roberts to, most recently, Nevada. 

UNC was less than impressive at the outset against the Wolfpack, but pulled away for a 84-61 victory.  They held Nevada to .349 from the field and just .100 from behind the arc.

They can expect stiffer competition from the Eagles and their floor leader, senior G Tyrese Rice.  Rice hasn’t been in the same All-Conference form as he was last season, but he is bound to go off eventually, as he did several times in 2007-08, when he averaged 21.6 points a game.

Not surprisingly, Tyler Hansbrough (23.0 ppg, 7.0 rpg) and Ty Lawson (16.6 ppg, 6.6 apg, 2.5 rpg) have led the Tar Heels for most of the year, with Lawson being impressive enough to vault himself at least into the Player of the Year conversation, if not outright contention.

Defensive specialist Marcus Ginyard, though not at full strength, has returned to the lineup and Danny Green has been on fire from the perimeter, shooting .568 from the field and an astounding .481 from three-point range.

Hansbrough has been dangerous from the free throw line as well, getting to the stripe an average of 10 times a game, converting over 87% of his attempts.  That makes Hansbrough the best of the starters from the charity stripe, so hacking him won’t work for those defending him.

Getting the ball into Hansbrough’s hands remains one of the keys for North Carolina, and it’s a sure bet that Boston College will do everything in their power to deny him the ball.

The bench has also come up big for UNC and has helped them wear down opponents in the second half.  Ed Davis, Larry Drew II, and Will Graves have all been impressive off the bench, and Bobby Frasor has been adequate in spelling Lawson.

Their depth took a hit with the loss of Tyler Zeller for the season (injured in a win over Kentucky), but the substitutes have so far made up for his absence.

The Tar Heel team has played far from perfect, however.  They are still guilty of defensive lapses, though they have been significantly better defensively than the 2007-08 team.

They can’t afford to stand around and let Rice and Joe Trapani rain down threes and keep Boston College in the game.

Wayne Ellington is off to a cool start, shooting .439 from the field and .356 from behind the arc, both well below team averages.

The fans are excited that ACC play is finally here in a season in which nothing short of a national championship will be satisfactory, a tough position for any team to be in night after night.  I expect UNC will eventually lose a conference matchup, just not this one.

Keys to a Tar Heel Victory:

1.  Get off to a fast start.

Boston College is not Rutgers or Nevada.  In ACC play, UNC can’t afford to get off to a slow start and expect to come back every time just because of the name on the front of their jerseys.  The Heels did a good job in jumping on Michigan State and Notre Dame early; they need to do the same to the Eagles.

2.  Force turnovers and keep the Eagles running.

That’s pretty much a key to every UNC game.  If Boston College doesn’t take care of the ball, they will get blown out.

3. Don’t get lazy on defense or rely on the three on offense.

When playing without their heads completely in the game, North Carolina tends to engage in both of these bad habits.  They win when they force the ball inside. 

Teams compensate by collapsing on Hansbrough and Thompson, opening up Green and Ellington on the outside.  When the Heels try to do that in reverse order, it almost always backfires, and they find themselves struggling for consistency.

When they get lackadaisical on defense, they get burned by perimeter shots and they don’t get to play at the pace they prefer.  Do it against Boston College, and Tyrese Rice just might post a double-nickel on you.

I predict Roy Williams will have his dadgum Tar Heels dang ready for some durn ACC play, so the gosh-blessed prediction is:

North Carolina 92, Boston College 76

Team Leaders

Hansbrough: 28 points, 10 rebounds, 10-of-11 from the free throw line

Rice: 24 points, .400 from the field